The fuel crisis gripping Russia is a stark reminder of the war's impact on everyday life, even in the affluent capital of Moscow. Queues at petrol stations, ranging from short to seemingly endless, are a common sight, with some garages completely out of fuel. This situation is particularly ironic given Russia's vast oil resources and its status as one of the world's largest producers.
The mood among those waiting is one of frustration, with people like Yekaterina expressing a need for better oil distribution. Elmar, on the other hand, highlights the rising prices and the time-consuming nature of refueling. Valery finds it strange that a country with such oil wealth should face queues, attributing it to a lack of preparedness and Ukrainian missile strikes.
What's interesting is the public's reluctance to openly criticize the president or the Kremlin. In Russia, such criticism is often met with caution, as demonstrated by Elmar's knowing smile when asked about blame. This self-censorship is a reflection of the country's political culture and the power dynamics at play.
The war's effects are becoming increasingly apparent within Russia, with Ukrainian drone and missile strikes targeting oil refineries and causing power outages in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. The authorities are also dealing with internet shutdowns and the growing fuel shortages.
Social media is abuzz with images of long queues and reports of fights breaking out. In some areas, like the Black Sea resort of Anapa, Cossacks have been deployed to maintain order. Rationing is widespread, and measures like banning the use of jerry cans and providing portable toilets for drivers are in place. The impact is felt across various sectors, from reduced bus services to concerns about the upcoming harvest.
The anxiety is palpable, and it raises the question: will this economic turmoil translate into political pressure on the Kremlin? NATO leaders meeting in Ankara are likely considering this very question. In Kyiv, strategists are hoping that ordinary Russians will become so exasperated that they'll urge their leader to end the war.
The Kremlin is aware of the situation and is taking steps to address the fuel crisis, such as increasing imports, subsidizing prices, and allowing the sale of lower-grade fuel. Putin himself has acknowledged the problem, stating that Ukrainian attacks are creating issues but insisting it's not critical. However, independent polls suggest his approval ratings are dropping, with a decline in the number of Russians believing the country is heading in the right direction.
Christopher Weafer, head of Macro Advisory, believes the fuel crisis could be a game-changer for Russia's economic growth, with the costs of the conflict rising and growth prospects dimming. But will this economic pressure lead to a change in Kremlin tactics?
Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs, argues that Putin is unlikely to bend. She believes he's more likely to respond aggressively and repressively to any perceived pressure. European hopes of forcing Putin to negotiate are, in her words, "far-fetched."
The signs indeed point to Putin doubling down, as evidenced by his recent appearance in military fatigues, claiming victories and promising more territorial gains. He also instructed his generals to analyze the involvement of Ukraine's European allies, a move that has raised concerns about potential escalation.
The question remains: what will Putin do next? Will he escalate, and if so, how? The world watches with bated breath, wondering if this economic crisis will be the turning point in the war.
